Reviewing Week 1: Is There Any Hope for Joe Barry's Defense?

     

    Well, that was rough. 

    What seemed like a favorable matchup against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday quickly turned into a rout for the Green Bay Packers. Aside from a few decent punts and a field goal from Mason Crosby, the game was a disaster. The Packers defense allowed 38 points against a depleted Saints offense, and even when they managed to get a stop, the Packers offense failed to produce almost anything of value.

    When I was able to get ahold of the All-22 tape from the game and began reviewing the defensive performance, I didn't expect to see many positives. Like many Packers fans, I was disgusted by the defense's inability to stop the Saints on the ground or in the air. There were several coverage breakdowns, and the defense failed to get consistent pressure on Jameis Winston. My early hopes for Joe Barry's iteration of the Packers defense were quickly fading.

    However, when I finished watching the tape earlier this week, I was surprised. The performance was bad, certainly. I know that many Packers fans were never fans of the Barry hire in the first place, and he could easily still crash and burn as defensive coordinator. Despite this possibility, I could see signs that made me optimistic that the defense could, and would, improve.

    Defenses can fail for numerous reasons. Sometimes, the personnel is unsuitable for the scheme; sometimes the players or scheme are simply bad. Sometimes the coach fails to prepare his defense for games, or is a poor in-game play-caller. In some cases, the defense is victimized by an excellent offensive system and coach (think about Green Bay's playoff game against the Rams last year). All these factors and more can contribute to a bad defensive outing. What then, was the reason for the Packers' failings? Was it Joe Barry's scheme or coaching? Was it personnel? Was it execution? How much did Sean Payton's offensive decisions contribute?

    After watching the coaches' film, I think that there are multiple reasons the defense underperformed. There were some instances where the preparation decisions of Green Bay's coaching staff, made without the benefit of relevant opponent film, came back to bite them. There were plays where the defense failed to communicate or execute effectively, and were burned as a result. There were a few instances of just plain bad luck. On some plays, the offensive ingenuity of Sean Payton and his staff was simply too good for the defense to overcome.

    The good news is that I think that a lot of these factors were either unique to this matchup or can be fixed in-season. To help demonstrate this, I'm going to go through some of Green Bay's defensive drives and take a look at a number of critical turning points that took place. These plays, if they go differently, could have completely altered the game and how we feel about the Packers' defense.

The First Drive

    This sequence was one of the few on which the Packers defense didn't surrender a touchdown. After gaining three first downs, the Saints offense stalled after two incompletions from Winston, and they were forced to kick a field goal. For brevity's sake, I won't spend much time on this drive. However, it is worth noting that two of the first downs the Saints picked up were on scrambles from Winston. The importance of that will become clear in just a minute.

The Second Drive

    Following a short 7-play drive from the Packers offense and the subsequent punt, the defense was back on the field. The Saints managed to pick up several first downs, and then began to stall again. On 1st down, the defense blanketed all of the receivers on a play-action pass, forcing Winston to throw the ball away. On 2nd down, Saints RB Tony Jones gained two yards on an outside zone run. It was now 3rd & 8. A stop here means that the Saints will likely have to try a field goal.     

    Turning Point #1

    Recognizing the importance of this play, Joe Barry sends a 5-man blitz package at Jameis. Preston Smith and Rashan Gary rush from Wide-9 alignments, with Za'Darius Smith, Kenny Clark, and De'Vondre Campbell coming from the interior. Unfortunately, Gary angles his bullrush too far inside, giving up his leverage on the edge. Rather than trying to force the ball under pressure, Winston makes the good decision to slip by and scramble for 10 yards and a first down. This lack of rush lane integrity also showed up in one of the scramble attempts that I referenced during my summary of the first drive.

    

    If I had to guess, I think that this aggressiveness was probably a coaching point for Joe Barry and the defensive positional coaches. They likely emphasized the importance of attacking Winston, moving him off of his spot, and trying to force him into bad decisions. Whether or not this was the case, Barry and the defense underestimated the mobility and judgment of Winston, costing them a potentially vital defensive stop here. 

    Despite this failure, I can understand the approach from Barry and his pass-rushers. No one really knew what an Saints offense with Jameis at the helm would look like. Would Sean Payton really be able to rein in Winston's reckless tendencies? Jameis' preseason tape would be of little value to the defense in this regard. He only attempted 22 passes through two games, and most of these were probably against fairly vanilla defenses. It made sense for the Green Bay defense to aggressively attack him in an attempt to force the "Old Jameis" to resurface. A lot of credit is due to Payton for his work in preparing Winston for these challenges. 

    This is one of the issues that the Packers faced in Week 1 that likely will not affect them as much as the season progresses. The defense was facing a great unknown in Jameis Winston. How would he react to pressure? Would he be able to make good decisions under duress? They had no way of knowing. 

    Five plays after this converted 3rd down, the Saints are at the 3-yard line. Winston tosses the ball to Kamara on a jet sweep with Tony Jones as a lead blocker (GB actually ran a similar play against the Chiefs in 2019). Preston Smith does a nice job getting penetration, but isn't able to finish the tackle. Darnell Savage manages to track Kamara's path across the formation, but Kamara dives into the endzone as he is being brought down. The Winston scramble from earlier in the drive turns into a Saints touchdown.

    Based on the positioning of the linebackers, it looks like the defense is expecting a weakside run to Tony Jones, which is likely why they didn't slide over with Kamara's motion. Outstanding playcall from Sean Payton.

The Third Drive

    Once again, Green Bay's offense failed to do much, punting after a 5-play drive. At this point the defense had to be getting worn down. The Saints offense had racked up over 11 minutes in time of possession, and the game was only about 3 minutes into the second quarter. The Saints began to advance down the field, accumulating two first downs to reach the Packers' 44 yard line. Za'Darius blows up a power run on 1st down, and then a false start backs the offense up into a 2nd & 14. Kenny Clark shuts down a draw play for one yard, and then another power run gets 6 yards. It is now 4th & 7 at the GB 41.

    Turning Point #2

    A run on 3rd & 13? That's a good sign that a fourth down attempt is coming, and at 7 yards, it was almost certain to be a passing play. The Packers roll out a passing down front, with Kingsley Keke and Preston Smith overloading the offense's left, Za'Darius over center, and Rashan Gary rushing from a Wide-9 on the offense's right. De'Vondre Campbell is stacked right behind Gary, threatening a blitz. The Saints are in a 3x1 formation, with the weakside TE inline and the running back offset away from the trips side. GB's secondary is in Nickel, with Oren Burks lined up behind the defensive line, Kevin King and Chandon Sullivan in press-man against the strongside #1 and #2, and Darnell Savage in off-man against #3. Jaire is in off-man on the weakside TE, and Adrian Amos is the single-high safety.

    This is a huge play. If the defense can get off the field, they can get some rest and give the ball back to Aaron Rodgers with good field position. They are only down 10 - 0 at this point, which is certainly manageable. Joe Barry is again playing aggressive, threating the blitz with Campbell while putting the CBs in man-coverage on the receivers. On the Saints' side, a conversion would likely mean another chance to score, even if it is only a field goal. And so, Sean Payton brings out perhaps his best playcall of the game.

    Jameis Winston motions Tony Jones out of the backfield over behind the 3 receivers on the strong side of the formation. GB recognizes this and Oren Burks motions with him. Campbell rotates to replace Burks, leaving only Rashan Gary and Jaire Alexander on the weak side of the formation. After the snap, the weakside TE - Juwan Johnson - starts to pass block against Gary. Alexander sees this and looks over to the trips side, probably checking for a crossing route coming over to his side of the field.

    The stage is set perfectly for the TE screen that comes a moment later. Juwan Johnson does an excellent job fooling Gary into believing that he is only blocking, then turns back for Winston's pass. Alexander is stuck facing two offensive lineman by himself, and is unable to make the tackle before Johnson can convert the fourth down.

    This is an amazing call by Payton, and I'm not sure what Barry could have done differently to prevent it. They have to rotate with the motioning back to respect the possibility of a screen on the strong side. If they blitz, then there could be even more space for Johnson on the screen. The best option would probably have been to play a softer zone coverage, where the secondary can more easily react to the screen. However, even in zone the misdirection caused by the back splitting out would have probably forced a rotation in order to maintain a passing numbers advantage and drawn the defense's eyes away from the screen side.

    Following the conversion, the Saints march down the field, getting to 1st & Goal at the GB 9. A five yard pass and two yard run get them to the GB 2 before the two-minute warning. That's right, the Saints have clocked almost another 10 minutes in time of possession. Absolutely brutal.

    Turning Point #3

    Honestly, it's impressive that the defense was still fighting as hard as it was after such a grueling drive. By my math, the Saints had accumulated over 20 minutes in time of possession at this point, compared to about 7 minutes of possession for the Packers. Despite likely being in an exhausted state, the Packers come inches away from another 4th down stop. On 3rd & Goal, Rashan Gary makes a terrific play to tackle Taysom Hill for a loss. Unfortunately, a neutral zone infraction from Dean Lowry brings the Saints offense to the 1-yard line. 

    On 4th & Goal from the 1, the Saints come out in a run-heavy set, with 6 OL, 2 TE, a FB, and a RB. The Packers crowd the line, anticipating a run. Right before the play begins, one of the tight ends motions across the formation. The Packers have to adjust their coverage responsibilities as a result -  you can seen them signaling as the TE goes in motion. 

    The Saints run play-action off of the heavy formation, similar to some of the playcalls that the Packers had success with on the goal-line last year. Rashan Gary reacts quickly and puts pressure on Jameis, actually getting his hands on the QB. Unfortunately, Juwan Johnson is wide open in the endzone. It looked there was a miscommunication among the secondary on who had Johnson in coverage. I would guess that either Adrian Amos or Jaire Alexander were supposed to cover him, but they were caught out of position as they tried to fit the run. Amos manages to get back to Johnson, but takes a bad angle and can't make a play on the ball. It's a touchdown, and the Saints are up 17 - 0.

    This is another good call by Payton, but I think that it's also just bad luck for GB. If Winston hesitates a millisecond longer, or Gary and Amos are half a step faster, this could very well be a turnover on downs.

The Fourth Drive

    As most of those reading this know, the Packers' offense was able to put their first and only points on the board right before halftime, driving down to get a field goal. Receiving the ball at the beginning of the 2nd half, Green Bay's offense managed to piece together another decent drive before Aaron Rodgers threw a back-breaking interception. 

    The defense responded with their best effort of the game, allowing only one first down before forcing the Saints to punt. 

The Fifth Drive

Unfortunately, the Green Bay offense quickly put its defense in another bad situation, managing only three plays before Rodgers throws his second interception. An good return on the interception meant that the New Orleans was already at the GB 12. 

    Turning Point #4    

    Two excellent run stops from Preston Smith lead to a 3rd & 8. On 3rd down, Green Bay comes out in a Nickel look, with Clark and Keke rushing inside and Preston and Gary coming from outside. The secondary seems to be playing a variation of Match Quarters, with Darnell Savage and Chandon Sullivan as the interior 1/4 defenders. Alexander and King take the outside 1/4 zones. The Saints roll out a 2 by 2 Pistol formation. The key part of the Saints' passing concept comes from the 2-receiver bunch on the right side of the offensive formation. These receivers are running a "Scissors" concept, which means that inside receiver takes a corner route to the outside, while the outside receiver crosses underneath him to run a post to the middle of the endzone. 

    The Packers actually cover this concept quite well for the most part. Jaire shows some nice awareness to pick up the corner route. The breakdown takes place in the communication between Sullivan and Savage. Sullivan recognizes that the post route will cross his face and that he doesn't have the leverage to defend it. He tries to signal this to Savage, who has inside leverage on the route and is thus in a better position to cover it. However, Savage's eyes are drawn down to Winston, who is stepping up in the pocket. Savage is likely anticipating another scramble, and is moving in accordingly. Unfortunately, Jameis sees him step up and tosses the ball into the resulting coverage void.

    It's hard to tell where to lay the blame on this miscommunication. Did Barry fail to prepare the secondary for situations like this in the redzone, where space and time to react are reduced? Did Savage simply ignore Sullivan's signals and decide to freelance? Is this a byproduct of the decision to sit most of the defense during the preseason, even though they were learning a new system? 

    Although it may be a combination of these factors, I'm inclined to think that the latter is the primary cause.  It seems like most of the secondary grasped their assignments, so preparatory coaching was probably not the issue. However, Savage in this case seemed to lack understanding on how his assignment would play out in live reps. Without preseason action, the secondary would have had next-to-no opportunity to really experience the different stress points and challenging situations in Barry's defense. Though Barry likely coached them through these challenges during the offseason, I think that the familiarity, confidence, and communication needed to run the defense at a high level of effectiveness needs time and game reps to develop. Throughout the game, in fact, the entire defense seemed to play with the tentativeness and uncertainty that a lack of experience can bring. 

The Sixth Drive

        Following the New Orleans touchdown, the Green Bay offense received another chance to return from a now 24 - 3 deficit. Guess what? They instead did nothing, managing to gain only 6 yards on 4 plays, and turning the ball over on downs. The Green Bay defense was once more placed in a no-win situation, facing a Saints offense on their own 21 yard line. After an incomplete pass, Kenny Clark stops a run for minimal gain, bringing up a 3rd & 9. Although the game was all but over and the outcome of this drive probably didn't matter, what follows was still one of the more frustrating individual plays of the day.

    Turning Point #5

    Green Bay rolls out another Nickel package, this time with Amos playing in the box with Campbell. Savage and Henry Black are the deep safeties; Alexander and King are on the outside receivers, with Sullivan in the slot. The secondary appears to be in a quarter-quarter-half shell, with Alexander and Savage taking the 1/4 zones on the short side of the field and Black as the deep 1/2 safety to the wide side of the field. Gary, Clark, Za'Darius, and Preston are rushing. Za'Darius beats the Saints' right guard with a beautiful club-rip move and comes roaring down on Winston. With Smith bearing down on him Winston finally makes an error, flinging the ball down the seam to Juwan Johnson, who is tightly covered by Sullivan. The ball ricochets off of Sullivan into the waiting arms of Darnell Savage, resulting in Green Bay's first turnover of the day. At least, it should have been. Thanks to a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty on Za'Darius, the play is called back and the Saints get a second chance.

    After a 2 yard rush, the Saints run another variation of the Scissors concept. This time the score is even easier. As the outside receiver on the offense's left runs the post, he collides with Kevin King. King is pushed backwards into the path of Chandon Sullivan, who is trying to match the corner route from the slot. As Chandon runs into King a pick play is created, leaving Juwan Johnson wide open for the touchdown.

    Similar to the last time the Saints ran the Scissors concept, blame for the touchdown is hard to assign. King and Sullivan both ID their assignments correctly, but run into each other due to their similar depths. This could be due to suspect coaching from Joe Barry, inexperience in the system, or just plain incompetence. Although neither Chandon nor King had great games, I'm inclined to think that inexperience is again to blame. They were clearly coached as to what they need to do, and started to follow through on that coaching. Unfortunately, they failed to understand what challenges they might face in real game reps - in this case, the possibility of a pick from the post receiver - and adjust to it by varying their depths.

The Rest of the Game

    At this point, a comeback was no longer attainable. The Saints were up 31 - 3 and it was the beginning of the fourth quarter. After another Packers punt, the defense did give up a fifth touchdown - a 50-yard score to Deonte Harris with King in coverage - but with the game out of hand I don't feel that we need to cover the play in detail. After this last touchdown, the teams mostly traded punts until the end of the game. 

Conclusion

    Green Bay's loss against the Saints was undoubtedly a disastrous showing. However, I think that there are reasons to be optimistic that the defense will improve as the season goes on.

    Reason #1: The Saints benefitted from the unscouted nature of their offense. As I mentioned, I think that attacking Jameis was a big coaching point for GB. They had no way of knowing how he would respond to real, non-preseason pressure. When they face good playcallers later on in the year, they should have a better idea of their opponent's offensive capabilities than they ever could in Week 1.

    Reason #2: Throughout the game, the Packers' defense played cautiously and had issues with communication and execution. These issues seem to be products of unfamiliarity with the practical applications of Joe Barry's system, probably because of their lack of preseason exposure. As the season continues and they gain more experience, I think that these problems will likely decrease or disappear. Keep in mind that Joe Barry also has had limited exposure to his personnel. He should be able to gain a better understanding of his defense's strengths and weaknesses as time goes on.

    Reason #3: The Saints were a tough matchup as a Week 1 opponent. Sean Payton is one of the best offensive play-callers in the league, and he had the benefit of a whole offseason to prepare. His 4th & 7 call for a TE screen was brilliant, and I'm not sure how any defense could have stopped it unless they had some idea of what was coming. Although that was the most prominent example, there were other times when Payton's offensive acumen really came to the fore. This could still affect the Packers if they end up facing New Orleans in the playoffs, but even then Payton won't have as much time to prepare, and there will be more tape available on his offense's strengths and weaknesses. The same goes for other talented coaches, like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.

    Reason #4: Luck simply wasn't on the Packers' side against the Saints. If Gary or Amos react faster on the goal-line play-action, or if Winston throws the ball a millisecond slower, then they could easily have gotten a turnover on downs. If Za'Darius doesn't get flagged for roughing the passer, then they would never have given up a touchdown on that series. The Packers will certainly have more moments of bad luck down the road, but if the other factors outlined here improve, then luck of the team will be less likely to have an impact on the outcome of games.

    Reason #5: The Packers' offense did their defense no favors on Sunday. I don't think that it's a coincidence that the defense's two best efforts - containing New Orleans to a FG to start the game, and forcing a punt on the Saint's first drive coming out of halftime - came when they were the most rested. It's hard to play with maximum effort when you've been on the field in the Jacksonville sun for over 10 minutes of possession by the start of the 2nd quarter. If the offense could have actually put together some drives, then this defense may have looked a lot different. I think that the offense will improve in future games, and that that will help the defense as well.

    At this point, it's impossible to predict whether the Packers' defense under Joe Barry will be any good. Legitimate questions were certainly heightened by the poor performance against the Saints. We can speculate on the improvements that this defense can make all we want; that doesn't mean they will actually take place. I think, though, that the reasons for optimism that are outlined above are reasonable. Though it's a small sample size, nothing I saw in the game made me think that Joe Barry's scheme or playcalling will be debilitating. 

        Much about the true capabilities of the Green Bay defense will become clearer as the season goes on. The defensive line remains a problem area: they were constantly being pushed back by the talented New Orleans OL. In particular, Kingsley Keke and Tyler Lancaster struggled to anchor and shed in the run game. Aside from a few nice rushes from Kenny Clark, the interior of the line also failed to get any real pressure in passing situations. Hopefully we'll see Jack Heflin on the gameday roster in the near future. I think that his power and motor could really help the GB defensive front, even if just in a rotational role. The outside linebackers need to perform better too; there were multiple times against the Saints where they failed to hold a strong edge.  I thought the inside linebackers, on the other hand, played quite well. Campbell and Barnes showed a decent ability to track the ball and tackle competently - in fact, the team's tackling was very good overall, an excellent sign for a team looking to take a "bend but don't break" approach. 

   With the exception of the 50-yard touchdown allowed by Kevin King late in the game and the moments of miscommunication covered previously, the secondary didn't allow very many significant gains in the passing game. Winston only attempted 20 total throws, however, so the sample size may to be too small to make any meaningful judgement on the secondary's play.  For the record, I am of the belief that Eric Stokes should be starting over King sooner rather than later. I think that King can be a league-average starting CB at times, but his inconsistency has the potential to hurt the team in big moments.

    However, even with a struggling pass rush, even with a poor showing from the defensive line against a run-heavy attack, even with Kevin King starting and getting burned, Green Bay's defense was able to put themselves in situations where they could get stops. The game's outcome could easily have been altered if these turning points go differently (assuming the offense could have actually scored, of course). I feel hopeful that the circumstances which prevented them from getting off the field against the New Orleans Saints will not be repeated as the Packers press on through their schedule.

A Note on Joe Barry's Scheme: Over the last week or so, I've heard some Packers fans criticize Barry for playing a large amount of zone coverage. His defense does indeed emphasize zone calls, particularly two-high coverages. Pro Football Focus writer Diante Lee took a look at some of the schematic data from the Green Bay defense in Week 1. In his outstanding article, he explains that when the Packers' defense is in Base 3-4 personnel (3 defensive lineman and 4 linebackers), their coverage calls are almost evenly split between two-high and one-high looks (in which one of the safeties rolls down to the box to help stop the run). Faced with heavy usage of run personnel from the Saints, Green Bay spent much of the day in their 3-4 base front. When they felt the need to bring an extra defensive back onto the field, the defense almost always played in one-high coverages.

    However, from my own view of the tape, I saw that some of the two-high zone plays that Barry used were not simple zone calls, but were instead variants of "zone-match" coverage. To explain it simply, zone-match uses elements of both man and zone coverage, depending on the offensive concept that the defense is facing. In addition, I noticed that on several of the passing downs that Barry faced he called plays which had one or more CBs in press-man on their receivers. Look at the 4th down conversion on the TE screen above for an example of this. The third-quarter play on which Eric Stokes got a PBU is another good demonstration. 

    I think it's possible that, as Barry gets a better idea of what his defensive players are capable of, he plays more press-man. However, some people seem to think that press is the only type of coverage that is effective. It's not. A variety of different coverage types are needed to defend offenses. Even playing 5-6 yards off the ball, apparently the worst fear of some Green Bay fans, can be useful. 

    Joe Barry's philosophical approach to defense - one that is shared by successful defensive coordinators like Vic Fangio and Brandon Staley - emphasizes preventing the explosive play-action shots on 1st and 2nd down that have grown more common as Shanahan-style offenses have become prominent in the NFL. This is why you see the Green Bay defense play a lot of soft zone. By closing off the vertical attack of opposing offenses, Barry challenges them to become horizontal instead. Offenses are forced to use the run game and short passes to advance down the field. Barry, Fangio, Staley, and other coordinators who take this approach are betting that most offensive coaches and quarterbacks will not be patient enough to do this, and will either try to force the ball downfield - playing right into the hands of the defense - or make mistakes in the form of sacks, penalties, or turnovers. 

    This is a philosophy that has a lot of value in today's NFL, and I think that it can be successful in many situations. In fact, I think it would have been successful in the Saints game if not for the perfect storm of factors that thwarted the Packers. In all of the critical moments I've outlined above, the Packers have gotten the Saints into 3rd & long or 4th down situations. That is a recipe for success, and the fact that they were able to do that in spite of a tough matchup, on the road, with a struggling defensive front, speaks to the viability of Barry's defensive scheme.